Nassau County Comptroller: Review of the 2025 Budget

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Oct 7, 2024
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       Nassau County
  Proposed 2025 Budget
 Review of Risks & Opportunities



 Office of Nassau County
Comptroller Elaine Phillips
          October 2024
        OFFICE OF THE NASSAU COUNTY COMPTROLLER
            Proposed 2025 Budget Risks and Opportunities



                        Elaine Phillips
                           Comptroller


                          Elizabeth Hill
                Deputy Comptroller for Accounting


                   Lisa S. Tsikouras, CPA
                  County Director of Accounting


                    Tolulope Agosu, MBA
                Deputy County Director of Accounting


                    Financial Analysis Staff

      Kenia Bonilla                      Pina Ruperto, CPA
Accounting Executive Advisor          Accounting Executive Advisor

 Emilio Baltazar, CPA                   Monica Fajardo, CPA
Accounting Executive Advisor               Accounting Executive

  Babatunde Popoola                        Khaleda Malique
   Accounting Executive                Accounting System Specialist

      Debra Foster                           Janet Garone
       Accountant IV                          Accountant IV

      Lisa McHugh                           Claudia Losada
       Accountant III                         Accountant II
                    OFFICE OF THE NASSAU COUNTY COMPTROLLER
                        Proposed 2025 Budget Risks and Opportunities


Table of Contents

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ..................................................................................... 1

PROPOSED FISCAL YEAR 2025 BUDGET RISKS/OPPORTUNITIES ....... 4

DISCUSSION OF REVENUES: (RISKS) / OPPORTUNITIES ...................... 10

DISCUSSION OF OBLIGATIONS: (RISKS) / OPPORTUNITIES ...............19

LONG-TERM OBLIGATIONS AND BORROWING TRENDS.....................31

NASSAU COUNTY INTERIM FINANCE AUTHORITY (NIFA) ACT ........34

APPENDIX A: GAAP ADJUSTMENTS AND THE EFFECT OF
ENCUMBRANCES ...............................................................................................38

APPENDIX B: SALES TAX VARIABLES AND TERMINOLOGY ..............39
OFFICE OF THE NASSAU COUNTY COMPTROLLER
    Proposed 2025 Budget Risks and Opportunities
                  OFFICE OF THE NASSAU COUNTY COMPTROLLER
                      Proposed 2025 Budget Risks and Opportunities

Hon. Elaine Phillips
Nassau County Comptroller




                   OFFICE OF THE NASSAU COUNTY COMPTROLLER
                                       240 Old Country Road
                                     Mineola, New York 11501
                              Tel: (516) 571-2386 Fax: (516) 571-5900
                                [email protected]


                                                                                 October 7, 2024

On behalf of the Office of the Nassau County Comptroller, I am proud to present our review of
the risks and opportunities in the County Executive’s Proposed Operating Budget for 2025, as
required by the Nassau County Charter.

A budget is the primary instrument for implementing fiscal policy. Thoughtful planning, backed
by reasonable and supportable projections, serves as the foundation for good government and for
the efficient and effective delivery of essential services.

My expert team and I have reviewed the major revenue sources and major categories of
expenditures contained in the County Executive’s Proposed 2025 Budget. Consistent with best
practice, my office has identified risks and opportunities that could result in budget variances in
2025.

Nassau County will go into 2025 in a strong fiscal position as evidenced by the past years’
surpluses, responsible management of reserves and liabilities, and the favorable evaluations of
independent rating agencies and the New York State Comptroller’s Office.


Sincerely,




Elaine Phillips
Nassau County Comptroller
                      OFFICE OF THE NASSAU COUNTY COMPTROLLER
                          Proposed 2025 Budget Risks and Opportunities

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

    PURPOSE
    The Nassau County Charter requires that the Nassau County Comptroller render an opinion as
    to the reasonableness of the estimates contained in such proposed budget relating to non-real
    property tax revenues. This report has been prepared pursuant to §402 (8) of the County Charter.

Nassau County is in a strong financial position. Nassau’s bond ratings are at their highest levels in
more than 30 years, and the major bond rating agencies continue to acknowledge the County’s
excellent fiscal condition. In May 2024, S&P affirmed the County’s AA– rating and upgraded
Nassau’s outlook to positive. Fitch raised its rating of Nassau from A+ to AA with a stable outlook,
and Moody’s upgraded the County’s rating to Aa2 with a Stable outlook.


                                       Nassau County Bond Ratings
                                             2022-Dec       2023-May       2024-May
                                          Rating Outlook Rating Outlook Rating Outlook
               Moody's Investors Services   A1 Positive Aa3 Positive Aa2 Stable
               S&P Global Ratings          AA- Stable AA- Stable         AA- Positive
               Fitch Ratings                A     Stable   A+ Positive AA       Stable


The May 2024 rating agency reports noted the improved financial budgeting and fiscal
management resulting in operational resilience as a reason for the upgrades. Specifically, the rating
agencies noted “The County has shown a continued trend of structurally balanced operations, and
significantly improved fund balances since lows in fiscal 2017 and 2018”. 1
For three years running, there has been “no designation” of fiscal stress from the Office of the New
York State Comptroller. This score is additional, independent confirmation of the financial health
of the County.




1
    Fitch Ratings, Rating Action Commentary, May 21, 2024, page 2.


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                 OFFICE OF THE NASSAU COUNTY COMPTROLLER
                     Proposed 2025 Budget Risks and Opportunities




This report reviews the County’s revenue sources with particular focus on Sales Tax. These
categories are consistently important sources of revenue for County Operations.
Similarly, the report reviews the County’s expenditures with particular focus on the largest
categories of expenditures, including Payroll and Fringe Benefits, Social Services Programs, Early
Intervention/Pre-School Programs, Debt Service, and Property Tax Refunds.
In this report we detail the potential risks (that proposed revenues will be lower or expenditures
will be greater than budgeted) and opportunities (that the proposed revenues will be higher or
expenditures lower than budgeted) contained within the proposed budget.
This report reviews:
    The 5 Budgetary Funds:
              Unconsolidated (Standalone) General Fund;
              Police Headquarters Fund;
              Debt Service Fund;
              Fire Commission Fund; and
              Police District Fund.




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                     OFFICE OF THE NASSAU COUNTY COMPTROLLER
                         Proposed 2025 Budget Risks and Opportunities


     The 3 Primary Operating Funds:
                 Total consolidated General Fund2;
                 Police District Fund; and
                 Sewer and Storm Water District Fund.

The 3 primary operating funds have different tax bases with activity that represent the daily
operations of the County and comply with Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP) for
governments, a common set of accepted accounting principles, standards, and procedures for
governmental financial reporting.

GAAP accounting differs from budgetary accounting. Among the differences is that GAAP
accounting does not recognize balance transfers (use of reserves) or use of fund balance as revenue,
therefore, on a GAAP basis, the proposed budget could show a projected deficit.

In evaluating the County Administration’s Proposed 2025 Budget, my expert staff and I have taken
a conservative view of revenue streams and sales tax growth. For example, we have excluded from
consideration revenue streams that have not been finalized. All things considered, we believe the
Administration has produced a responsible and balanced budget for 2025.

It is a tight budget, and the Administration must be mindful of managing to the budget in 2025. In
addition, the County should explore ways to reduce expenditures and/or increase revenue going
forward.




2
  GASB Statement No. 54, Fund Balance Reporting and Governmental Fund Type Definitions was adopted by Nassau
County in fiscal year 2011. GASB Statement No. 54 clarified the definition of General Fund, which caused the County
to reconstitute the General Fund to include funds that are not defined as Special Revenue Funds. Special Revenue
Funds are used to account for and report the “proceeds of specific revenue sources” that are restricted, committed or
assigned to expenditures for specified purposes other than debt service or capital projects. In accordance with GAAP,
the General Fund is comprised of the following active County funds: General; Police Headquarters; Fire Commission;
Debt Service; Open Space; Technology; Litigation; Employee Accrued Benefit Liability Reserve; Retirement
Contribution Reserve; Bond Indebtedness Reserve; Excess Sales Tax Special Revenue Fund; Opioid Litigation
Settlement Fund; and the Operating Reserve Fund.


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                     OFFICE OF THE NASSAU COUNTY COMPTROLLER
                         Proposed 2025 Budget Risks and Opportunities

PROPOSED FISCAL YEAR 2025 BUDGET RISKS/OPPORTUNITIES

Based on the review performed, the Comptroller’s Office estimates that the 2025 Proposed Budget
contains approximately $1.0 million of budgetary opportunity for the five (5) budgetary funds 3
and $131.0 million of risk for the three operating funds on a GAAP basis 4. The risks and
opportunities are shown in Table 1 and Table 2, excluding eliminating interfunds and net of
eliminating transfers in and out.
A risk to the proposed budget represents a projection that revenues will be lower, or expenditures
will be greater, than budgeted. Conversely, an opportunity to the proposed budget represents a
projection that revenues will be higher, or expenditures will be lower, than budgeted.
Table 1, (Risks) / Opportunities to the 2025 Proposed Budget below is broken out into two sections
to better illustrate the impact of the budgeted reserve funds. The first section of Table 1 identifies
the projected risks and opportunities for the five budgetary funds. The second section of Table 1 on
the following page, illustrates the projected risks and opportunities for the remaining funds that
comprise the three primary operating funds, which comply with governmental accounting standards
for financial reporting. The remaining funds include the Sewer and Storm Water District Fund and
the reserve funds that are included in the General Fund for financial reporting purposes.




3
  The five (5) budgetary funds are the General Fund (standalone), Police Headquarters and Police District Funds, the
Fire Commission Fund and the Debt Service Fund, what the Administration refers to as “the five Major Funds”.
4
  The estimated results are prior the application of any GAAP entries related to GASB 87, Leases, GASB 94, Public-
Public and Public Private Partnerships and Availability Payment Arrangements, and GASB 96, Subscription Based
Information Technology Arrangements as these entries cannot be estimated at this time.


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                    OFFICE OF THE NASSAU COUNTY COMPTROLLER
                        Proposed 2025 Budget Risks and Opportunities
Table 1. (Risks) / Opportunities to the 2025 Proposed Budget
                                                                               Sewer and            Total
                                       General Fund        Police District
            ($ millions)                                                      Storm Water          Operating
                                           (a)                  Fund
                                                                                  Fund              Funds

5 BUDGETARY FUNDS
REVENUES
Sales Tax                                         $13.0                                                     $13.0
Use of Fund Balance                             ($20.0)             ($10.0)                               ($30.0)
Fines and Forfeitures                            ($3.2)                $0.0                                ($3.2)
Departmental Revenues                            ($9.4)                $0.0                                ($9.4)
Federal Aid                                      ($4.4)                                                    ($4.4)
State Aid                                         $28.3                                                     $28.3
Investment Income                                ($5.9)              ($4.8)                               ($10.7)
Rents and Recoveries                            ($15.2)                $0.0                               ($15.2)
PILOTs                                           ($1.0)                                                    ($1.0)
All Other                                          $0.0                $0.1                                  $0.1
                   Total Revenues               ($17.8)             ($14.7)                               ($32.5)

OBLIGATIONS
Payroll, Fringes & Workers'
                                                    $1.8             ($2.2)                                ($0.4)
Compensation
Early Intervention                              ($25.0)                                                   ($25.0)
Social Services                                  ($6.2)                                                    ($6.2)
Contractual Expense                              ($7.6)                $0.0                                ($7.6)
Local Government Assistance                      ($0.8)                                                    ($0.8)
Property Tax Refunds                              $34.7                                                     $34.7
Judgments and Settlements                         $28.0                                                     $28.0
Debt Service                                      $11.0                                                     $11.0
All Other                                        ($0.2)                $0.0                                ($0.2)
                  Total Obligations               $35.7              ($2.2)                                 $33.5
    Total (Risks)/Opportunities -
                                                  $17.9             ($16.9)                                  $1.0
                5 Budgetary Funds
(a) Comprised of the General Fund (standalone), Police Headquarters Fund, Fire Commission Fund, and Debt Service
Fund




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                    OFFICE OF THE NASSAU COUNTY COMPTROLLER
                        Proposed 2025 Budget Risks and Opportunities
Table 1. (Risks) / Opportunities to the 2025 Proposed Budget – continued
                                                                                    Sewer and             Total
                                          General Fund        Police District
             ($ millions)                                                          Storm Water           Operating
                                              (b)                Fund (c)
                                                                                       Fund               Funds
SEWER AND STORM WATER
AND RESERVE FUNDS
REVENUES
Use of Fund Balance                               ($298.0)                                  ($16.9)            ($314.9)
Investment Income                                    $24.3                                     $1.7               $26.0
Rents and Recoveries                                  $0.0                                   ($5.9)              ($5.9)
Capital Resources for Debt                            $0.0                                   ($5.0)              ($5.0)
                 Total Revenues                   ($273.7)                                  ($26.1)            ($299.8)

OBLIGATIONS
Payroll, Fringes & Workers'
                                                    $191.6                                     $0.8             $192.4
Compensation
Property Tax Refunds                               ($34.7)                                                      ($34.7)
Judgments and Settlements                          ($28.0)                                                      ($28.0)
Transfers Out                                        $69.0                                                        $69.0
Debt Service                                                                                   $6.1                $6.1
All Other                                            $10.1                                   ($0.1)               $10.0
                 Total Obligations                  $208.0                 $0.0                $6.8             $214.8
    Total (Risks)/Opportunities -
                                                   ($65.7)                                  ($19.3)             ($85.0)
         SSW and Reserve Funds
(b) Comprised of Litigation, a portion of the Employee Accrued Benefit Liability Reserve, Retirement Contribution
Reserve, Bond Indebtedness, Operating Reserve, Opioid Litigation Settlement, Technology, and Open Space Funds.
(c) On a GAAP basis, a portion of the Employee Accrued Benefit Liability Reserve Fund is reclassified to the Police
District Fund.




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                    OFFICE OF THE NASSAU COUNTY COMPTROLLER
                        Proposed 2025 Budget Risks and Opportunities
Table 2., Projected Risks and Opportunities – 3 Primary Operating Funds Fiscal Year 2025 below
combines the risks and opportunities of the two sections shown in Table 1., which combined,
represents the total risks and opportunities for the 3 primary operating funds, the estimated GAAP
adjustments and the projected total risks and opportunities on a GAAP basis.

Table 2. Projected Risks and Opportunities – 3 Primary Operating Funds Fiscal Year 2025
                                                                                Sewer and             Total
                                                           Police District
            ($ millions)                General Fund                           Storm Water           Operating
                                                                Fund
                                                                                   Fund               Funds
    Total (Risks)/Opportunities -
                                                   $17.9             ($16.9)                                   $1.0
              5 Budgetary Funds
    Total (Risks)/Opportunities -
                                                 ($65.7)                                ($19.3)             ($85.0)
       SSW and Reserve Funds
    Total (Risks)/Opportunities -
                                                 ($47.8)             ($16.9)            ($19.3)             ($84.0)
                3 Primary Funds
        Total GAAP Adjustments*                  ($50.8)                $6.0              ($2.2)            ($47.0)
     Total (Risks)/Opportunities
                                                 ($98.6)             ($10.9)            ($21.5)           ($131.0)
                    GAAP Basis
* GAAP adjustments are estimates and may change at year-end. These estimates do not include GAAP adjustments for
GASB 87, GASB 94 and GASB 96.


Table 3., Estimated GAAP Adjustments for Fiscal Year 2025 breaks out the estimated GAAP
adjustments projected for fiscal year 2025 as shown in Table 2. above.




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                    OFFICE OF THE NASSAU COUNTY COMPTROLLER
                        Proposed 2025 Budget Risks and Opportunities
Table 3. Estimated GAAP Adjustments for Fiscal Year 2025
2025 Estimated GAAP Adjustments *                                            Police
                                                                                          Sewer and  Total
                                                               General                      Storm
                                                                             District               Operating
($’s in millions)                                               Fund                        Water
                                                                              Fund                   Funds
                                                                                            Fund
Projected Results on a Budgetary Basis                             ($47.8)      ($16.9)       ($19.3)      ($84.0)

                    Period of availability adjustments              ($6.2)        $0.0         ($1.0)       ($7.2)
                     Pension expenditure adjustment                ($10.3)      ($12.5)         $0.0       ($22.8)
                        Sale of Mitchel Field Leases                 $1.3                                    $1.3
                 NCC adjustment for termination pay                 ($1.0)                                  ($1.0)
                  Effect of encumbrances adjustment                ($16.1)        $0.0         ($1.2)      ($17.3)
                            Other GAAP adjustments                   $0.0         $0.0          $0.0         $0.0
 Reversal of prior year GAAP adjustments for timing                ($18.5)       $18.5                       $0.0
NET CHANGE IN FUND BALANCE (DEFICIT)                               ($98.6)      ($10.9)       ($21.5)     ($131.0)

* GAAP adjustments can fluctuate until finalized in the year-end financial statements primarily due to the
effects of encumbrances; the value of unspent encumbrances as of year-end and the expenditures paid after
year-end but incurred during the fiscal year are difficult to predict. Thus these adjustments are estimates at this
point in time. GAAP adjustments related to GASB 87, GASB 94 and GASB 96, have not been included above.




Below are some of the key assumptions for the projections in this report:
       The 2025 Proposed Budget includes an estimated $46 million budgeted for the 308 vacant
        positions in the County in the three primary operating funds. The projections in this report
        do not include a cost for these vacant positions as the methodology used by the
        Comptroller’s Office is to project using current on-board headcount adjusted for additional
        police and correctional classes and related attrition.
       Revenues included in the 2025 Proposed Budget for new initiatives have been risked. This
        conservative approach is applied since timing of implementation is unknown, legislation
        may be required or there is pending litigation related to the initiative. Examples include the
        Income and Expense Law and the Ticket Reconciliation Program.
       While this report projects that property tax refunds and judgments and settlements will be
        on budget in 2025, the report assumes that all judgments and settlements, and all but $5.3
        million of property tax refunds, will be paid out of the Litigation Fund reserve.
       The 2025 Proposed Budget includes an adopted budget for most of the reserve and other
        funds that are consolidated into the General Fund. As such, and based on discussions with
        the Budget Office, the projections in this report do not include expenditures in the
        following funds: Bond Indebtedness Fund (BIF), Employee Accrued Benefit Liability



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                 OFFICE OF THE NASSAU COUNTY COMPTROLLER
                     Proposed 2025 Budget Risks and Opportunities
       Reserve Fund (EBF), Retirement Contribution Reserve Fund (RCF), Technology Fund
       (TCF), Open Space Fund (OSF), and the Operating Reserve Fund (ORF). The projections
       do include investment income projected on the cash balances held by these funds.
      The projections do include expenditures in the:
          o The Litigation Fund (LIT), even though there is no adopted budget proposed for
            2025; it is expected that tax certiorari payments, litigation costs and longevity
            payments to employees, will be paid from this fund in 2025.
          o The Opioid Litigation Settlement Fund (OLS), which is included in the 2025
            Proposed Budget, accounts for contractual costs.



Further Analysis of the individual risks and opportunities can be found beginning on page
10.




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                    OFFICE OF THE NASSAU COUNTY COMPTROLLER
                        Proposed 2025 Budget Risks and Opportunities

DISCUSSION OF REVENUES: (RISKS) / OPPORTUNITIES
This section discusses significant revenue risks and opportunities presented in the fiscal year 2025
Proposed Budget.

PRIMARY FUNDS REVENUE COMPOSITION

Sales Tax is the major revenue source for Nassau County, accounting for $1.6 billion or 37% of
revenue, followed by Property Tax at $755.3 million or 18%, State and Federal Aid at $526.9
million or 12% and Departmental Revenues at $203 million or 5%.

Chart 1: 2025 Proposed Budget Primary Operating Funds Revenues


  FY 2025 Proposed Primary Operating Funds Revenues ($ Millions)




Note: Other includes: Non-offsetting Interfund Revenues ($82.4 million), PILOTs ($51.7 million), Rents and
Recoveries ($48.6 million), Interest Penalties on Taxes ($35.5 million), Special Taxes ($33.8 million), Permits and
Licenses ($18.7 million), OTB Video Lottery Terminals ($20.0 million), Revenue Offsets of Expense ($23.4 million),
Investment Income ($59.7 million), and Capital Resources ($15.2 million).




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                  OFFICE OF THE NASSAU COUNTY COMPTROLLER
                      Proposed 2025 Budget Risks and Opportunities

Sales Tax | Budget Opportunity $13.0 million

The Comptroller’s Office projects a $13.0 million opportunity for Sales Tax revenue in the 2025
Proposed Budget, or a 1.5% growth in sales tax collections over the Comptroller’s Office 2024
projection for sales tax, which was revised from the 2024 Mid-Year Report.

Sales Tax, at 37% of 2025 budgeted revenues (net of offsetting interfund revenues), is the
County’s largest revenue source and is highly correlated to economic conditions.

Table 4. Sales Tax Revenue ($ Millions)
    FY 2023            FY 2024                                     FY 2025
                       Comptroller’s                                                    Budget
                         Updated                                Comptroller’s
      Actual                             Proposed Budget                             Opportunity
                        Projection                                Forecast

     $1,574.3             $1,606.0             $1,599.8            $1,612.8              $13.0


2025 SALES TAX PROJECTIONS

The Comptroller’s Office projects sales tax revenue of $1,612.8 million, or $13.0 million over the
2025 Proposed Budget. The 2025 sales tax collections as projected in this report are 1.5% over the
Comptroller’s Office updated 2024 projection for collections. See Table 5. below for the 2025
sales tax projections and comparisons to the 2025 Proposed Budget.

The Comptroller’s Office 2024 projection for sales tax revenue was increased to $1,606.0 million,
which reflects year-to-date collections through September 2024 plus a projected 1% increase in
the remaining checks over those collected in 2023.

It is important to note that sales tax collections are what the County receives from the State. County
sales tax revenue is reported as collections net of adjustments for Part County deferred revenue.
For further information on Part County sales tax, please see Appendix B. Table 5. below illustrates
the differences between sales tax collections and sales tax revenue.




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                     OFFICE OF THE NASSAU COUNTY COMPTROLLER
                         Proposed 2025 Budget Risks and Opportunities
Table 5. Sales Tax by Collections and Revenue ($ Millions)
                             FY 2023          FY 2024                                 FY 2025
                                           Comptroller’s                                                   Budget
                                             Updated              Proposed          Comptroller’s
                              Actual                                                                    Opportunity
                                            Projection             Budget             Forecast

Sales Tax Collections           $1,563.4           $1,578.7          $1,589.4              $1,602.4              $13.0
Prior Year Part County             $21.3              $27.3             $10.4                 $10.4               $0.0
Less: Current Year Part
                                 ($10.4)               $0.0              $0.0                   $0.0              $0.0
County
Total Sales Tax Revenue         $1,574.3           $1,606.0          $1,599.8              $1,612.8              $13.0


Because sales tax revenue is very economically sensitive, Table 6., 2025 Sales Tax Collections
Scenarios outlines several scenarios based on varying growth rates on the 2025 CO Projection
for sales tax. The projection for 2025 sales tax collections used in this report is denoted in the
shaded column “2025 CO Projection” in the table below.

Table 6. 2025 Sales Tax Collections Scenarios – ($ Millions)

in $ millions
                                 2025 CO    2025 CO     2025 CO    2025 CO    2025 CO
2025 Sales Tax
                                 Projection Projection Projection* Projection Projection
Collections Scenarios
                                   -1.5%      -1.0%                  +1.0%      +1.5%

Projected Total Sales Tax        $     1,578.4 $      1,586.4 $ 1,602.4         $     1,618.4 $        1,626.4

2025 Proposed Budget             $     1,589.4 $      1,589.4 $ 1,589.4         $     1,589.4 $        1,589.4

Difference from Budget           $      (11.0) $         (3.0) $       13.0     $        29.0 $          37.0

% Difference from Budget               -0.69%          -0.19%         0.82%             1.83%           2.33%

* 2025 CO Projection = Updated 2024 CO Projection + 1.5% growth



The Chart below depicts, by fiscal year beginning in 2014, actual sales tax revenue reported and
the adopted budget, with projections for 2024 and 2025 revenues, and the 2025 Proposed Budget.
The graph displays the slowing increase in sales tax since the inception of enhanced internet sales
tax and the restrained sales tax revenue during the COVID-19 pandemic.




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                   OFFICE OF THE NASSAU COUNTY COMPTROLLER
                       Proposed 2025 Budget Risks and Opportunities
Chart 2: Sales Tax Revenues ($ Millions) – Actuals & Projected




Fines and Forfeitures | Budget Risk ($3.2) million


The projections for Fines and Forfeitures anticipates a risk of $3.2 million. This risk is primarily
attributed to $4.0 million of risk in the Traffic and Parking Violations Agency (TPVA), related to
TPVA fines and traffic violation administrative fees, and a $5.0 million risk for Ticket
Reconciliation Program (TRP). These risks are offset by an opportunity of $5.8 million in Red-
Light Camera Fines and Red-Light Camera Administrative Fees.


Table 7. Fines and Forfeitures – ($ Millions)
                                 FY 2023       FY 2024                    FY 2025
                                             Comptroller’s                                Budget
           Category              Actual       Mid-Year        Proposed   Comptroller’s
                                               Forecast
                                                                                           Risk
                                                              Budget     Forecast
Red Light Cameras & Admin Fees       $45.6            $48.7      $46.1          $51.9           $5.8
Public Safety                        $26.5            $23.5      $26.0          $26.0           $0.0
School Bus Camera                     $1.9             $2.4       $3.0           $3.0           $0.0
Ticket Reconciliation Program         $0.0             $0.0       $5.0           $0.0          ($5.0)
Other Fines and Forfeitures          $20.7            $20.8      $26.2          $22.2          ($4.0)
Total Fines and Forfeiture s        $94.7            $95.4      $106.3         $103.1         ($3.2)




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                 OFFICE OF THE NASSAU COUNTY COMPTROLLER
                     Proposed 2025 Budget Risks and Opportunities
Investment Income | Budget Opportunity $15.3 million

The Comptroller’s Office projects a $15.3 million opportunity for Investment Income in the 2025
Proposed Budget. This opportunity is due to an estimated $26.0 million of interest earnings on
cash held in the reserve funds and the Sewer and Storm Water Fund, included in the three primary
operating funds but are not included in the 2025 Proposed Budget, offset by estimated lower
interest income of $10.7 million in the five budgetary funds due to projected declining interest
rates.


Table 8. Investment Income – ($ Millions)

  FY 2023        FY 2024                                FY 2025
              Comptroller’s                                                   Budget
               Mid-Year            Proposed            Comptroller’s
   Actual                                                                   Opportunity
                Forecast           Budget              Forecast

   $88.6          $81.9            $59.7                 $75.0                 $15.3



Departmental Revenue | Budget Risk ($9.4) million
The 2025 Proposed Budget includes $9.4 million of estimated risk in Departmental Revenues
primarily comprised of the following:
 Department of Assessment revenue from the Income and Expense Law of $5.0 million. The
litigation surrounding these fees remains unadjudicated, therefore, the total estimated in the
Proposed Budget is being risked.
 GIS map verification fees in the Department of Assessment are projected to be lower than
estimated in the 2025 Proposed Budget ($4.0 million), however, it’s projected higher than 2024
forecast, due to Federal Reserve lowering interest rate and prior years trends.
The remaining $0.4 million risk is comprised of various departments due to the year over year
collection trend.




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                   OFFICE OF THE NASSAU COUNTY COMPTROLLER
                       Proposed 2025 Budget Risks and Opportunities
Table 9. Departmental Revenues – ($ Millions)
                                  FY 2023         FY 2024                        FY 2025
                                                                                               Budget
                                                Comptroller’s
                                                                Proposed       Comptroller’s
            Category               Actual        Mid-Year
                                                                 Budget          Forecast      Risk
                                                  Forecast
GIS Tax Map Verification Fees          $21.7           $19.0          $29.0           $25.0        ($4.0)
Mortgage & Deed Recording Fees         $27.1           $26.6          $27.0           $27.0         $0.0
Revenue from Income and Expense
Law                                     $0.0            $0.0           $5.0            $0.0        ($5.0)
Other Departmental Revenue             $132.1          $140.7         $142.0          $141.6       ($0.4)
Total Departmental Revenue            $180.9          $186.3         $203.0          $193.6        ($9.4)




Federal Aid | Budget Risk ($4.4) million

The Comptroller’s office projects a risk of $4.4 million for Federal Aid revenue in the 2025
Proposed Budget. Most of this risk ($3.9 million) is in Day Care cost reimbursements in the
Department of Social Services. The risk was determined by amending the reimbursement rates
between Federal and State Aid; this risk is mostly offset in State Aid for Day Care cost
reimbursements.


Table 10. Federal Aid ($ Millions)
  FY 2023          FY 2024                               FY 2025
                Comptroller’s
                  Mid-Year          Proposed             Comptroller’s            Budget
   Actual
                  Forecast           Budget                Forecast                Risk

   $194.3           $196.9            $217.6                $213.2                 ($4.4)


State Aid | Budget Opportunity $28.3 million

The Comptroller’s Office projects a $28.3 million opportunity for State Aid revenue in the 2025
Proposed Budget. Much of this opportunity ($26.5 million) is related to State Aid reimbursement
for preschool special education services which are projected to increase due to an increase in
related program expenditures. According to the 2025 Proposed Budget Summary, the County is
pursuing legislation to cap or mitigate the local cost of preschool services. The County’s State Aid
reimbursement for pre-school and related services is 59.5%. There is also an opportunity of $3.6
million due to higher than budgeted State Operating Assistance reimbursement (STOA). These
opportunities are offset by net risks of $1.7 million across a few different departments (i.e.
Department of Health, Human Services and Social Services)
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                     OFFICE OF THE NASSAU COUNTY COMPTROLLER
                         Proposed 2025 Budget Risks and Opportunities


Table 11. State Aid ($ Millions)
  FY 2023              FY 2024                                FY 2025
                 Comptroller’s
                  Mid-Year           Proposed            Comptroller’s              Budget
   Actual
                   Forecast           Budget               Forecast               Opportunity

   $301.0              $318.1         $309.4                  $337.7                  $28.3



Rents and Recoveries | Budget Risk ($21.1) million

The 2025 Proposed Budget includes a projected risk of $21.1 million in Rents and Recoveries.
The 2025 Proposed Budget includes $4.2 million for the sale of County property, however, at the
time of this report, we are not aware of closing dates for any specific properties for sale in fiscal
year 2025. The proposed budget includes $10.0 million in rental income for the Nassau County
Coliseum; this revenue has conservatively been risked pending the determination whether or not
the agreement meets the criteria of GASB 87, which governs the accounting for leases. Depending
on that outcome, the budgetary and GAAP results may vary accordingly. The projections include
a risk of $5.9 million in the Sewer and Storm Water Fund related to reimbursements on the sewer
operations contract, which is based on historical trends. The remaining risk of $1.0 million is
comprised of various departments based on a year over year trend.


Table 12. Rents and Recoveries and Sale of County Property ($ Millions)
                                 FY 2023        FY 2024                           FY 2025
                                              Comptroller’s                                     Budget
                                                                 Proposed       Comptroller’s
            Category             Actual        Mid-Year
                                                                  Budget          Forecast      Risk
                                                Forecast
Sale of County Property                $0.3            $1.2              $4.2            $0.0       ($4.2)
Enterprise Fund Recoveries             $3.4            $4.0             $10.9            $5.0       ($5.9)
Sands Revenue                          $0.0            $0.0             $10.0            $0.0      ($10.0)
Other Rents and Recoveries            $31.0          $38.5              $23.4           $22.4       ($1.0)
Total Rents and Recoveries            $34.7           $43.7             $48.5           $27.4      ($21.1)



Payment in Lieu of Taxes | Budget Risk ($1.0) million

The Comptroller’s Office is projecting a risk of $1.0 million for Payment in Lieu of Taxes (PILOT)
in the 2025 Proposed Budget. This as a result of a projected decrease in the anticipated PILOT
payments from LIPA.



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                  OFFICE OF THE NASSAU COUNTY COMPTROLLER
                      Proposed 2025 Budget Risks and Opportunities
Table 13. Payment in Lieu of Taxes – ($ Millions)
  FY 2023        FY 2024                                FY 2025
              Comptroller’s
               Mid-Year              Proposed            Comptroller’s        Budget
   Actual
                Forecast             Budget              Forecast             Risk

    $52.3          $51.0             $51.7                 $50.7                 ($1.0)


Capital Resources for Debt | Budget Risk ($5.0) million

The 2025 Budget proposes $10.0 million in revenue from unspent bond proceeds from completed
capital projects. When a capital project is complete and all obligations have been paid, the capital
project may be submitted to be permanently closed. In accordance with New York State Local
Finance Law, §165.00, any unused bond proceeds in the closed project may only be used to pay
debt service. While the Comptroller’s Office does agree there are unspent bond proceeds from
completed projects, our office is risking $5.0 million of the $10.0 million budgeted since details
regarding the projects that are considered complete with unused cash have not been provided and
reviewed to date. If projects are identified and reviewed for available unspent cash proceeds, some
or all of the risk may be mitigated. It is expected that as part of the County’s Nassau Forward ERP
project, clean up of old capital projects will be completed and unused bond proceeds will be
available for debt service paydown.


Table 14. Capital Resources for Debt ($ Millions)
    FY 2023          FY 2024                                 FY 2025
                  Comptroller’s                                                    Budget
                   Mid-Year             Proposed           Comptroller’s
     Actual                                                                         Risk
                    Forecast            Budget             Forecast

      $1.5            $19.9             $15.2                $10.2                  ($5.0)



Use of Fund Balance | Budget Risk ($344.9) million

The Comptroller’s Office projects Use of Fund Balance with a risk of $344.9 million for the three
operating funds, primarily due to the budgeted use of fund balance in the reserve funds of $314.9
million. The remaining $30.0 million use of fund balance projected in the General Fund ($20
million) and the Police District Fund ($10 million) is also risked since use of fund balance is not
a revenue source.



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                OFFICE OF THE NASSAU COUNTY COMPTROLLER
                    Proposed 2025 Budget Risks and Opportunities
Table 15. Use of Fund Balance ($ Millions)

  FY 2023        FY 2024                       FY 2025
              Comptroller’s                                  Budget
               Mid-Year         Proposed     Comptroller’s
   Actual                                                     Risk
                Forecast         Budget        Forecast

    $0.0           $0.0           $344.9       $0.0          ($344.9)




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                     OFFICE OF THE NASSAU COUNTY COMPTROLLER
                         Proposed 2025 Budget Risks and Opportunities
DISCUSSION OF OBLIGATIONS: (RISKS) / OPPORTUNITIES

This section discusses risks and opportunities identified on obligations presented in the fiscal year
2025 Proposed Budget.

PRIMARY FUNDS OBLIGATIONS COMPOSITION

Major Obligations Categories

Payroll and fringe benefits, at 47% or $2,033.1 million is the County’s greatest expenditure,
followed by Early Intervention and Social Service Programs at $463.6 million or 11%, Contractual
Services at 10% or $440.6 million, total Debt Service at 8% or $334.1 million, and Medicaid at $
254.3 million or 6%.

Chart 3: 2025 Proposed Primary Operating Funds Obligations


         FY 2025 Proposed Primary Operating Fund Obligations ($’s Millions)




Note: Other includes: Non-offsetting interfund charges ($69.7 million), Mass Transportation ($52.0 million),
Utilities ($56.7 million), General Expenditures ($53.6 million), Rental Expenditures ($17.9 million), FIT and Non-
Resident Tuition ($16.8 million), Legal Aid Society ($10.3 million), Bar Association ($17.4 million), Variable Direct
Expenses ($5.3 million), Equipment purchases ($5.8 million), NIFA expenditures ($2.3 million), and various other
($69.5 million).

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                   OFFICE OF THE NASSAU COUNTY COMPTROLLER
                       Proposed 2025 Budget Risks and Opportunities

Payroll, Fringe Benefits and Workers’ Compensation | Budget Opportunity $192.0 million

Payroll, fringe benefits, and workers’ compensation expenditures are projected to have a
combined surplus of $192.0 million when compared to the 2025 Proposed Budget.
The 2025 Proposed Budget includes a total of $2,033.1 million related to payroll, fringe benefits
and workers’ compensation expenses combined. This includes budgeted funding from the
County’s reserve funds, $72.5 million for salary related expenses and $131.5 million for fringe
benefit related costs. Variances to the Comptroller’s Office 2025 projections are detailed below:


Table 16. Payroll, Fringe Benefits and Workers’ Compensation ($ Millions)
                          FY 2023       FY 2024                      FY 2025
                                                                                    Budget
                                     Comptroller’s                Comptroller’s
                                                      Proposed                      (Risk)
                           Actual      Forecast                     Forecast
                                                       Budget                     Opportunity
Payroll excluding OT &     $877.1       $872.4         $974.6         $904.5         $70.1
Termination Pay
  Overtime                $121.3         $131.9         $86.9         $117.1         ($30.2)
  Termination Pay         $41.0           $47.8         $94.1          $51.3          $42.8
           Total Payroll $1,039.4       $1,052.1      $1,155.6       $1,072.9         $82.7
Fringe Benefits           $648.8         $674.6        $839.7         $730.4         $109.3
Workers' Compensation      $33.8         $38.0         $37.8           $37.8           $0.0
 Total Payroll, Fringe
Benefits and Workers' $1,722.0          $1,764.7      $2,033.1       $1,841.1        $192.0
     Compensation


The 2025 Proposed Budget assumes a full-time headcount of 7,588, an increase of 4.2% or 308
personnel from the current on-board headcount of 7,280 as of September 13, 2024. The value of
the 308 budgeted full-time positions is estimated at $46 million for the three primary operating
funds.

The increase in budgeted headcount year-over-year includes funding for additional staffing
primarily in areas of Public Safety to continue to address the impact of criminal justice reforms,
which include the Sheriff’s Department and Corrections, the District Attorney, the Police and
Probation Departments. Classes of new police and correctional officers are included to offset
attrition, assist in mitigating future overtime costs, and manage the impact of Criminal Justice
Reform passed by New York State, on the County. Other areas requiring increases in headcount
include the Department of Public Works and Social Services, Health Department and Human
Services due to an increase in use of these services by County residents.


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                 OFFICE OF THE NASSAU COUNTY COMPTROLLER
                     Proposed 2025 Budget Risks and Opportunities
Major Assumptions:

Step Increases and Cost of Living Adjustments: The Comptrollers’ Office forecast includes all
scheduled step increases and cost of living adjustments (COLAs) consistent with the ratified labor
contracts (DAI, SOA, PBA, COBA, CSEA and IPBA) and the 2025 budget as proposed.

Reserve Funds: The Administration has included in the County’s 2025 Proposed Budget a total of
$204.0 million of funding from the County’s reserve funds to be applied toward salary and fringe
benefit expenditures:

      Operating Reserve Fund (ORF): $30.0 million for salary expenses and $55.0 million for
       expenses related to fringe benefits. These reserves that have been set aside can be used for
       expenses related to healthcare, labor costs and risk management.
      Retirement Contribution Reserve Fund (RCF): $74.5 million for fringe benefit expenses.
       The reserves in this fund can provide a partial payment of the unbudgeted annual
       contribution the County makes to the New York State Retirement System for the ERS
       invoice.
      Employee Benefit Accrued Liability Reserve Fund (EBF): $42.5 million towards salary
       costs and $2.0 million for fringe benefit expenses. These funds can be used to cover the
       cost of unbudgeted accumulated but unused and unpaid termination pay, and other forms
       of payment for accrued but unliquidated time payable to County Police District employees
       and non-Police District employees, upon termination of service.

The ORF and the RCF are reported as a component of the General Fund. Because the EBF has
funding from both the Police District and the General Fund, a portion of the EBF is reported as
part of the General Fund and the remainder in the Police District Fund. With sufficient
appropriations budgeted in each of the County’s operating funds in 2025 for both salary and fringe
benefit expenses, the Comptrollers’ forecast does not include any expenditures paid using these
reserve funds.

Workers’ Compensation: In 2019, New York State eliminated its workers’ compensation (second
injury) long-term liability to the County, which estimated the cost of reimbursing the County for
certain categories of injured workers. Instead, the State offered, and the County accepted, a
discounted upfront payment of its estimated liability when the County agreed to assume that long-
term liability, which was established to pay the injured employees over a span of approximately
20 years. The County received a lump sum of $15 million as the discounted value of the long-
term liability, which the State estimated at $19 million. The Administration began using the $15
million in 2020 to settle current workers’ compensation claims. The County may also use a portion
of these proceeds to settle an additional number of long-term claims at a reduced cost. The $15
million is being reported in the Litigation Fund, a component fund of the General Fund, however,
the projections do not include any expenditures paid using these funds.


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                   OFFICE OF THE NASSAU COUNTY COMPTROLLER
                       Proposed 2025 Budget Risks and Opportunities



PAYROLL EXPENSE (EXCLUDING OVERTIME AND TERMINATION)

The Comptroller’s Office projects a surplus in payroll of $70.1 million excluding termination pay
and overtime costs. Potential savings identified in this category include:
      The 2025 Proposed Budget continues to fund approximately 308 vacant positions with an
       estimated value of approximately $46.0 million for the County’s three primary operating
       funds. Additional savings can be achieved if budgeted positions remain vacant or there are
       delays in hiring into the year.
      Potential savings of $3.7 million have been identified in Part time / Seasonal personnel in
       the General Fund which includes budgetary increases not supported by current trends and
       anticipated increases in headcount.
In 2022, the Administration reserved $100 million in the County’s Litigation Fund (a component
of the General Fund) to absorb the retroactive longevity payments related to the 2022 settlement
with the unions. The funds reserved in the Litigation Fund are expected to be used by the
Administration in 2024 to alleviate longevity expenses until the full amount reserved has been
depleted or four years from the date of the settlement, whichever is first. The remaining balance
in the Litigation Fund for longevity payments is $54.8 million as of September 2024.
For 2025 the Proposed Budget includes funding of $30.0 million for salary related costs that have
been reserved in the Operating Reserve Fund (a component of the General Fund) established by
Local Law 5 in 2023 that can be used to mitigate expenses related to healthcare, labor costs and
risk management. These funds have been appropriated for use in 2025 and any unused balance
would need to be re-appropriated in future years for use by the Administration.


Table 17. Payroll Expenditures excluding Termination Pay and Overtime ($ Millions)
                                 FY 2023         FY 2024                         FY 2025

                                              Comptroller’s                                      Budget
                                                                 Proposed Comptroller’s
            Fund                  Actual        Forecast                                         (Risk)
                                                                  Budget    Forecast
                                                                                               Opportunity
General Fund
                *General Fund        $430.3            $389.6        $462.9           $422.1             $40.8
    Police Headquarters Fund          216.3             228.0         238.0            225.6              12.4
       Fire Commission Fund           $10.0             $10.8         $13.0            $11.5               1.5
TOTAL GENERAL FUND                   $656.6            $628.4        $713.9           $659.2             $54.7
Police District Fund                  212.6             236.8         252.2            238.0              14.2
Sewer & Storm Water Fund                7.9               7.2           8.4              7.2               1.2
Total                                $877.1            $872.4        $974.5           $904.4             $70.1
* includes Litigation fund, Operating Reserve fund and Employee Benefit Accrued Liability Reserve fund



                                                                                                Page | 22
                  OFFICE OF THE NASSAU COUNTY COMPTROLLER
                      Proposed 2025 Budget Risks and Opportunities
FRINGE BENEFITS

The Comptroller’s Office projects a positive variance of $109.3 million in fringe benefits when
compared to the 2025 Proposed Budget total of $839.7 million for this expenditure category.
The Comptrollers’ Office is projecting a total of $730.4 million for this category resulting in a
surplus of $109.3 million when compared to the 2025 Proposed Budget of $839.7 million. The
primary areas of savings identified in fringe benefits are:
      $19.9 million related to FICA expense due to vacant positions;
      $3.7 million in Medicare reimbursement costs with trends remaining steady over the last 3
       years; and
      $7.2 million pertaining to budgeted pension expense, with costs expected to be lower than
       the 2025 budgeted amounts based on the estimated bills from the New York State
       Retirement System for both New York State Local Employees’ Retirement System (ERS)
       and the New York State Local Police and Fire Retirement System (PFRS).
The 2025 Proposed Budget includes $74.5 million of appropriations in the Retirement
Contribution Reserve Fund (a component of the General Fund) and may be used toward fringe
benefit expenses. This reserve fund may provide a partial payment of the annual contribution
made to the New York State Retirement System for ERS. However, the budget as proposed has
sufficiently funded for the County’s anticipated pension expenses in the operating funds for 2025
based on the estimated bills from the New York State Retirement System for both ERS and PFRS.
Any unused reserves will need to be re-appropriated in future years for use by the Administration.
An area of risk offsetting these potential savings is in active employee and retiree health insurance.
The Comptroller’s Office forecast has estimated a combined health insurance cost that could create
a budgetary shortfall of up to $53.0 million depending on how actual insurance rates for 2025
compared to current estimated increases year-over-year.
The Proposed Budget for 2025 also includes $55.0 million of appropriations related to fringe
benefit costs in the Operating Reserve Fund. Based on Local Law 5 of 2023, this reserve may be
used for the payment of unbudgeted or extraordinary costs related to healthcare costs.
This area of risk is specifically for the active CSEA union members that were switched to the
NYSHIP Excelsior plan in 2024. This plan with the State is now set to terminate as of December
31, 2024. Until the decision of the new healthcare plan for the active CSEA members is made, the
impact to the County is unknown. Additionally, there is a risk in health insurance for retirees of
the CSEA union. For 2025, these me

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